Decision Making Model - What Would You Do?

Activities for Divisions I to IV: Wind | Avalanches

Information for Students:
Everyday, you are faced with making all kinds of decisions. Some of the decisions may seem rather trivial: What should I wear to school? What should I eat for lunch? Other decisions may have more serious consequences: Should I get into a car with a drunk driver?

Byron will also be making decisions that could have serious consequences if he makes the wrong choice. The weather on Mt. Everest will play an important part in many of these decisions. For example, if the team thinks a storm is approaching, they may decide to come down from Camp II to Base Camp. Or, if it is going to be a sunny, hot day, the members of the expedition will try to get through the Kumbu ice-fall early in the morning.

Byron and his team will be making these decisions by using a model similar to the one shown below:

1. Situation or Problem:
Understand the problem or situation clearly. This is necessary to understand a variety of alternative courses of action.

2. Options or Possible Solutions:
Come up with as many possible options or solutions as possible.

3. Collect Data:
Research all the available information about the probable outcome of each choice or option. Think about what might happen with each option or choice. See if there are ways to combine several promising courses of action. Use a tool such as a cost/benefit analysis to weigh the pro's and con's of each option.

4. Choice:
Make a choice based on the consequences of the options.

What Would You Recommend? You will assume the role of Basecamp manager for the Everest 2000 expedition. In this role, you are gathering all of the weather data. The Everest 2000 expedition will be asking you to help them make a decision. Use the decision-making model to come up with your recommendations.

Activity #1 Wind

Background:
At the top of Mount Everest, Byron will be buffeted by severe winds, freezing temperatures and driving snow. The extreme cold on the mountain also worries climbers. High on the mountain, temperatures routinely dip below minus 40 degrees Celsius. Combined with the risk from winds, it is easy to understand why exposed flesh can freeze in seconds.

Here is an excerpt from Byron's personal diary from his 1998 expedition:

Big Damage at Camp Two to all Expeditions. Well, it seems the wind has done some damage. Up at Camp Two the high winds started at about 10 pm last night and have not let up, just about all of the expeditions on the mountain have lost their tents at Camp Two. We had 10 tents and it is our understanding that only one remains, it happens to be our largest tent at camp. Some of the expeditions had a cook, and some had a Sherpa up at Camp Two. These people held on for dear life in the raging storm, putting rocks on top of knocked down tents, and putting gear in the tent that they were in.

Situation:
Byron has to decide if he is going to climb from Camp Two to Camp Three on Mt. Everest. His Base Camp managers have indicated that it will be very windy. If you were Byron, would you climb from Camp Two to Camp Three?

1. Define the Situation:
Answer the following questions or come up with your own questions to define the situation. For help coming up with questions, see the Weather background information

• Where is Camp Two? What is its elevation?
• Where is Camp Three? What is its elevation?
• What obstacles does the team have to worry about as they climb from Camp Two to Camp Three?

2. Options or Possible Solutions:

• Should Byron stay in Camp Two?
• Should he climb to Camp Three?
• Should he return to Base Camp?

3. Collect Data:
Use these questions as a guide or come up with your own questions:

• How strong can the winds get at Camp Three?
• How much snow can fall at this elevation?
• What other factors does the team have to worry about?
• Do they have enough supplies to survive if they climb to Camp Three?
• Do they have the right equipment to climb to Camp Three in the wind?

4. Choices:
What recommendations would you make?

Procedure:
1. Write the situation down on a large piece of paper or the board.
2. Write down the options or choices for that situation.
3. Write down the consequences of each option.
4. Discuss each option and why you would choose it.
5. Make the recommendation.

Other Discussion Questions: 1. Was it harder to think of choices with good or with bad consequences?

2. Why is it important to think of consequences when making a decision?

3. Can you think of a situation when one of your options had both good and bad consequences?

Activity #2 Avalanches

Background:
When a storm strikes Everest, it can dump up to several meters of snow. Soon thereafter, avalanches begin pouring down the mountain's immense faces. At other times, the risk can slowly build to the point where climbers simply traversing slopes can trigger a deadly release of snow.

After a big storm, climbers usually must sit tight for several days until the avalanche activity has subsided and the snow pack has stabilized. Still, the climbers must exercise great caution, particularly when traversing the large slopes that must be crossed to establish the higher camps.

Situation:
It is the day to summit Mt. Everest and Byron is at Camp Four. A report has come in to Base Camp that a storm has dumped three metres of fresh snow at Camp Three and higher. As Base Camp manager, you are in constant contact with Byron and the other team members at Camp Four. What would you recommend - go for the summit or wait for the avalanche danger to subside?

1. Define the Situation:
Answer the following questions or come up with your own questions to define the situation. For help coming up with questions, see the Weather background information

• Where is Camp Three? What is its elevation?
• Where is Camp Four? What is its elevation?
• What obstacles does the team have to worry about as they climb from Camp Four to the summit?

2. Options or Possible Solutions:
Use these or come up with your own solutions:

• Should Byron stay in Camp Four?
• Should he climb to the summit?
• Should he return to Base Camp?

3. Collect Data:
Use these questions as a guide or come up with your own questions:

• How much snow can fall at this elevation?
• How much snow can fall at this elevation?
• What other factors does the team have to worry about?
• Do they have enough supplies to survive if they stay at Camp Four?
• How does the altitude affect this decision? (see Human body background, High Altitude)

4. Choices:
What recommendations would you make?

Procedure:
1. Write the situation down on a large piece of paper or the board.
2. Write down the options or choices for that situation.
3. Write down the consequences of each option.
4. Discuss each option and why you would choose it.
5. Make the recommendation.

Other Discussion Questions: 1. Was it harder to think of choices with good or with bad consequences?

2. Why is it important to think of consequences when making a decision?

3. Can you think of a situation when one of your options had both good and bad consequences?

Extension:
1. Follow the expedition on a regular basis. If at all possible, the team will be sharing the process that they use to make decisions on Mt. Everest.

2. There may also be an opportunity for you to contact the real Base Camp Manager, Ann Armstrong, or the other members of the expedition to learn more about the decisions made on Mt. Everest.

3. If you have been involved in the earlier telecollaborative projects, you may wish to connect with the other schools in your group to discuss your decisions and recommendations.